Getting into the Dirt of Agriculture and Climate

This Week’s Reason for Hope

Senate Democrats are discussing adding a carbon price to $3.5 trillion dollar infrastructure package

• Starts at $15 / ton and goes up from there
• To help pay for infrastructure package
• Applies to oil, natural gas, coal at source
• Also suggesting repeal of fossil fuel subsidies
• Needs a dividend to help consumers
• Needs border adjustment to pressure China

Sources

Overnight Energy & Environment — Presented by the American Petroleum Institute — Democrats eye potential carbon price in reconciliation bill | TheHill

Intro

 Record droughts and heat hitting Western U.S.

• Hottest July on West Coast in 127 years
• 49% of CA in extreme drought category
• Heat makes drought worse
• Ongoing drought in Klamath Falls, OR 

Farmers have always faced weather risks, but climate change is making that job much harder

Sources

Western Drought Will Last Into Fall or Longer - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

‘Trying to survive’: Wells dry up amid Oregon water woes - OPB

Climate Impacts Facing the West

How will climate change impact the West

• Higher temperatures
• Wetter winters (mostly Pacific NW)
• Drier summers
• More frequent heavy precipitation events
• Decreasing snowpack

Depending on the situation, these impacts can have three primary outcomes

• Reduced yield
• Crop failure
• No longer able to grow certain crops

One of the most impactful changes will be decreased snowpack

West relies heavily on irrigation

• Snow acts as a reservoir providing critical late season water

Western snowpack projected to

• Decrease in lower elevation areas of Cascades and Sierra Nevada that are currently reliable
• Eventually disappear in Southern mountains of Western US

All this is made worse by fact that, in some areas, water resources are already stretched to the max

CA just halted some water diversions in Sacramento Valley, one of nation's most important ag regions

• Demand is three times larger than supply of Sacramento River and 16 times larger than supply of San Joaquin

Lack of water will mean some areas can no longer grow certain crops or grow crops altogether

• Huge disruption for farmers
• Farmers will have to make costly adjustments to infrastructure
• New learning curve

Extreme events will likely be the other major issue

High heat events can be devastating, especially if they occur during key development stages of crops

80% failure of an onion crop in SE Washington this year because of record heat wave

High precipitation events risk major erosion and loss of water

• Soil can absorb rain failing in small increments
• Soil struggles to absorb rain quickly enough if it comes all at once

The compounding effect of higher temperatures

Adding higher temperatures to a drought can make it much worse

Increasing heat will make droughts more severe

• Soil becomes dehydrated
• More water evaporation
• Plants grow faster demanding more water

Good news is we control the amount of temperature rise

• High emission scenario – 5.4°–11.0°F
• Low emission scenario - 2.3°– 6.7°F

Sources

Our Changing Climate | Fourth National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov)

Recent U.S. Temperature Trends | National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov)

Drought Prompts California To Halt Some Water Diversions – CBS San Francisco (cbslocal.com)

https://oregonstate.app.box.com/s/7mynjzhda9vunbzqib6mn1dcpd6q5jka

Precipitation Change in the United States - Climate Science Special Report (globalchange.gov)

Our Changing Climate - Fourth National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov)

Heat wave cooked Walla Walla sweet onions to mush | The Seattle Times

‍Northwest | National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov)

Climate Change and Agriculture | Union of Concerned Scientists (ucsusa.org)

FINAL Southwest and California Vulnerbility Assessment Final.pdf (usda.gov)

Solutions for Agriculture

Switch to more resilient crop varieties (if possible)

Create healthier soils that better capture/store water and limit erosion

• Technique #1 - reducing tillage to maintain organic matter in the soil
• Technique #2 – use cover crops that can add organic matter and also replenish nutrients (example - clover)
• Avoid bare dirt

Altering water infrastructure

Continue to make irrigation more efficient

• Converting to most efficient sprinklers
• Using drip irrigation (where possible)

Goal is limiting evaporation and putting water only where it's needed

 Add more storage

• Planning studies indicate need for more reservoir storage in PNW
• Need to be mindful of potential harm to natural ecosystems

Policy level changes

• Better crop insurance programs to protect farmers when disaster strikes
• Incentives to encourage the latest sustainable practices
• Technical support to help farmers with adopting new practices

Arguably, most important, we need to curb our emissions to limit warming to much more management levels

Sources

Steep III - Pacific Northwest Conservation Tillage Systems Information Source (wsu.edu)

CC and Agriculture Report (02-04-2013)b.pdf (usda.gov)

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