Oil, Climate, and the War in Ukraine

Show Notes

This Week’s Reason for Hope

Stellantis, maker of Jeep and Dodge, just released their strategy “Dare Forward 2030”

By 2030 EVs will be

50% U.S. of sales
100% E.U. of sales

Company will be carbon neutral by 2038

CEO, Carlos Tavares, believes EVs are 50% more expensive to produce and that electrification is being imposed on auto industry

‍Sources

Electric Jeep and Ram 1500 BEV teased in Stellantis's 'Dare Forward 2030' strategy to become carbon neutral by 2038 - Electrek

Ukraine and Potential Impacts on Climate Action

Russia and fossil fuels

One of top three largest oil producers along with U.S. and Saudi Arabia

2019 snapshot

2nd largest oil and natural gas producer
40% of federal budget
60% of exports

Importers of Russian fossil fuels

E.U. - 40% of natural gas supply

U.S. - 8% of oil supply

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Oil volatility

Sample of historical spikes

1973 = 4x increase = OPEC oil embargo
1979 = 2x increase = Iran / Iraq war
1991 = 2x increase = Gulf War
2005 = 1.5x increase = Hurricane Katrina
2008 = 3.5x increase = Financial crisis

Actions in Europe

Germany

Has committed 200 billion euros to bring forward its goal of 100% renewable energy by more than a decade
A decade ago, it operated 17 nuclear reactors that produced nearly 25% of country’s electricity

U.K. - planning to phase out Russian oil by year end

E.U.

Just released outline of plan called REPowerEU
Would reduce E.U. demand for Russian gas by 2/3 by year end
Would eliminate E.U. dependance on Russian fossil fuels before 2030

Components

Buy gas elsewhere
Increase supplies of stored gas - to be filled up to at least 90% of its capacity by first of October each year
Boost renewables and energy efficiency

Examples of measures to increase clean energy

Streamline permitting process for new projects
Double renewable natural gas production by 2030
Increase renewable hydrogen

Actions in U.S.

Biden administration

Banned imports of Russian oil
Working to reduce near term price shocks by releasing production from strategic petroleum reserve, calling on domestic producers to boost production and reached out to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia
Is calling to speed up U.S. transition to clean energy

Quote from Senator Ed Markey of MA “This moment is a clarion call for the urgent need to transition to domestic clean energy so that we are never again complicit in fossil-fuel funded conflict”

Oil execs in Houston calling for focus to be on expanding fossil fuel production

Quote from chairman of Tellurian Inc, a liquid natural gas developer “Since the consequences of climate are going to be 30 or 40 years down the road, people are going to focus a lot more on what is happening now. As they should,” “We can come back to climate.”

Fracking operations have been unwilling to boost production since before Ukraine because of earlier boom / bust cycles

American Petroleum Institute has used high energy prices to try to extract concessions

Sent a wish list to White House
Example - speed up several regulatory processes, such as a new five-year offshore-leasing plan
They are not stating how much it would help or whether it could fill gap

State senators from fossil fuel states using Russian invasion of Ukraine as opportunity to try to expand oil production in their states

Sources

Will Russia ever leave fossil fuels behind? - BBC Future

Energy, climate change and security: The Russian strategic conundrum - Jakub Maciej Godzimirski, 2022 (sagepub.com)

Russian Federation | Climate Action Tracker

Climate change: EU unveils plan to end reliance on Russian gas - BBC News

Nuclear Power in Germany - World Nuclear Association (world-nuclear.org)

How economic strategies helped to determine the victor in America's Civil War : NPR

Joint European action for more affordable, secure energy (europa.eu)

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1501374874094383109?s=20&t=kDTId9HTldEYk4bEyoFI6w‍

Climate Hawks Join the Debate on Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

As War Rages, a Struggle to Balance Energy Crunch and Climate Crisis - The New York Times (nytimes.com)